Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
