A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
